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Daily morning economic update, recorded live from the CME trading floor https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hChz3pVftEU&t=1s

Economy update The German economy contracted 0.3% in 2Q from the previous quarter because of the trade barriers erected by the US. The latest composite PMI suggest that the US economy is on a solid footing, although the increase in initial jobless claims implies some weakness in the labour market. The odds of a September…

Economy update The Indian economy is on fire as the August composite PMI of the private manufacturing and service sectors registered an impressive jump. Japanese manufacturing, on the other hand, contracted. In the EU, the composite index reached its highest level since May, mainly due to an impressive increase in new orders. US data is…

Economy update The chances for a Russia-Ukraine meeting are slipping away. This is what Russia’s less-than-lukewarm response to the proposal implies. UK consumer prices inflated by an annual rate of 3.8% in July, the highest in 18 months. The central bank of New Zealand reduced interest rates to the lowest in 3 years and warned…

Economy update Yesterday’s talks between Trump and Zelensky ended on a relatively upbeat note as the US President hinted at providing security guarantees to Ukraine if a peace deal is achieved with Russia, without elaborating. There are still many moving parts, and the situation will likely take the usual twists and turns in the coming…

Economy update After Friday’s meeting between the US and Russian leaders, the Ukrainian president and EU politicians will meet Donald Trump in the White House. He will tell them that Ukraine should give up hope of joining NATO and reclaiming Crimea. EU trade surplus in June was €7 billion, down from €20.7 billion a year…

Economy Update The Nikkei takes another run as Japan’s GDP beats expectation both QoQ and YoY. However, bourses are mixed in the East as China data dampens spirits. House Price Index down 2.8% which was not unexpected but Fixed Asset Investments, Industrial Production and Retail Sales missed badly and at 3.7%, the latter is the…

Economy Update Bourses still firm on US Treasury Sec. Bessent saying data should give opportunity for a 50bps cut with a further 150 next year. New highs seen in Nasdaq, S&P, MSCI all index, and Nikkei again. Bitcoin on a tear with risk-on. Nikkei lately dipped as JPY takes a run on Bessent speculation that…

The US CPI reading was not deemed accelerated enough to delay a FED cut in September and US bourses led a charge which spilled into APAC and Europe. FedWatch pricing for a 25bps cut is now 95%. The Nikkei leaps once again as Reuters Tankan manufacturing sentiment index rose to +9 from a +7 reading…