US Fed Funds Target Rate N/A 5.00 – 5.25% (Prev. 5.125%) LEAVING RATES UNCHANGED

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• FED RAISES BENCHMARK RATE 25 BPS TO 4.75%-5% TARGET RANGE

• Fed Chair Powell repeats that rate cuts are not in the Fed’s base case

• Double Digit Fed Funds?

  It is all about interest rates. Commodity prices, equity prices, real estate prices, volatility, and…

• FED’S BULLARD: AT THIS POINT, I SEE POLICY RATE IN THE RANGE OF 5.25% TO 5.5% AS APPROPRIATE

• FOMC RATE HIKE ESTIMATES: NOMURA – 25 BPS ( EXPECTS RATE CUT), BARCLAYS 0 BPS, CREDIT SUISSE 0 BPS, GOLDMAN SACHS 0 BPS, BMO 25 BPS, CIBC 25 BPS, CITI 25 BPS, JP MORGAN 25 BPS, MORGAN STANLEY 25 BPS, RBC 25 BPS

• FED SWAPS PRICE IN 100BP OF RATE CUTS BY DECEMBER 2023 FROM EXPECTED PEAK

• Fed’s Mester (non-voter) reiterates Fed will need to hike policy rate to over 5% and hold there for a while; inflation still too high, Fed has more work to do; Fed is much closer to the end of the rate-hike journey

• Fed’s Bostic (2024 voter, neutral) maintains view Fed policy rate needs to rise to 5.00-5.25% range, policy rate will need to remain at that level well into 2024

  Fed’s Bostic (2024 voter, neutral) maintains view Fed policy rate needs to rise to 5.00-5.25%…

• Fed Chair Powell says policy rate may not have to rise as far as otherwise due to tightened bank credit conditions